The Rays are the reigning AL champs, and their young roster and heady front office mean contention for years to come. The Yankees have spent more than $420 million this winter to improve a team that won 89 games a year ago. And even the Blue Jays, surely destined for fourth place, would likely be a playoff team in the NL. As for Boston, their patient, low-cost, paring-our-nails approach this winter means the Red Sox have been overlooked as World Series contenders. But that's precisely what they are, provided they can stay healthy.

The Boston offense last season ranked second in the AL in runs scored, second in batting average, first in OBP and third in slugging percentage. On the pitching front, the Sox were fourth in the AL in fewest runs allowed, third in rotation ERA, seventh in bullpen ERA, and fourth in fielding independent pitching. Defensively, the Sox placed third in the AL in revised zone rating and fourth in defensive efficiency. As you can see, Boston had no glaring weaknesses in 2008 — that's not surprising for a team that won 95 games. And keep in mind that GM Theo Epstein has added to the fold, most notably, right-handers John Smoltz and Brad Penny, and outfielder Rocco Baldelli.

As for the offense, there's reason to think Boston can get even better. First, they're poised to make Jed Lowrie the starting shortstop, and that's a good thing. Incumbent Julio Lugo last season hit .268 AVG/.355 OBP/.330 SLG, and at age 33 he's not likely to improve in 2009. Meanwhile, Lowrie, according to the Marcel projection system, will hit .268/.345/.425. If that comes to pass, it's a big improvement over Lugo in the power department, and Lowrie's also the better defender these days.

Of course, Lowrie's status as starting shortstop depends upon Mike Lowell's ability to stay healthy at third base. Lowell is still a quality defender with good pop from the right side. However, he'll be 35 before Opening Day, and he's coming off major hip surgery. Will he be able to give the Sox 140 games or so? Will his skills be diminished? It's impossible to know, but if Lowell is unable to stay off the DL or is ineffective, then Lowrie might be forced into third-base detail. That means more Lugo at short, and that's not what Boston needs.

Elsewhere, the Baldelli signing gives Boston a platoon partner for center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, provided Baldelli's body is able to handle the rigors of the position. David Ortiz and J.D. Drew, despite advancing age, should remain highly effective, and Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Bay should continue producing at high levels. The bench, with Mark Kotsay, Lugo (ideally), Baldelli, George Kottaras (perhaps) and a Jonathan Van Every or a Chris Carter, should also be a source of strength.

Then there's catcher. It's possible Jason Varitek will return, and if he does Boston had better hope he's able to improve upon his dismal 2008 numbers. Varitek will never again be the MVP-caliber performer he was from 2003-05, but a modest rebound in 2009 is possible. That's because Varitek last season saw a precipitous decline in his batting average on balls in play. In all likelihood, bad luck played a role in that decline, so you may see some improvement next season. Even if Boston passes on Varitek, they should be able to cobble together a league-average arrangement with Josh Bard and Kottaras. In either scenario, the more playing time that goes to Kottaras, the better off Boston will be.

Pitching ... Boston's put together some impressive depth in the rotation. Right now, they'll trot out Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester, and they'll find two more starters from a group that includes Tim Wakefield, Smoltz, and Penny.

Obviously, injury concerns abound. Beckett has a history, Wakefield is 42, and Penny and Smoltz both have shoulder issues. In Smoltz's case, he may not be available for game action until early June. When/if someone pulls up lame, Boston can turn to Michael Bowden or perhaps a reconstructed Clay Buchholz. They've got options, and considering the uncertainties in play, that's a good thing.

As for the bullpen, improvement can be expected. Jonathan Papelbon is a shutdown closer, and Dustin Masterson, Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez and Manny Delcarmen are all quality setup men. The addition of Ramon Ramirez, acquired from Kansas City in exchange for Coco Crisp, will strengthen the bridge to Papelbon, and the newly signed Junichi Tazawa, who's likely to debut at Double-A Portland, might also be ready to help out in the big leagues by midseason. If the starters stay healthy, then perhaps Bowden can be deployed as a reliever until he's ready to join the major-league rotation.

More options? Rule-5 choice Miguel Gonzalez has a powerful fastball-slider combo that's tough on right-handers. He's potentially a useful addition. And Takashi Saito, the former Dodger closer, is a nifty, high-upside signing.

To be sure, the margin for error in the AL East will be perilously thin. But Boston is a balanced and deep team with no fatal weaknesses. They haven't spent the dollars that the Yankees have, and they lack the ceiling that Tampa enjoys. But the Red Sox are very much in the mix for the division title. And if they can manage to stay healthy, then they might even be the best team in baseball.